Polling data shows declining support for Biden among black voters compared to 2020.
A Republican pollster predicted Trump could win nearly a third of the black vote, especially younger black men, against Biden in 2024.
The pollster cited anecdotal evidence from conversations with black baggage handlers feeling victimized like Trump.
“But specifically with black voters, it’s not all black voters, it’s younger black voters and particularly younger black men,” pollster Frank Luntz said. “I discovered this when I got off a plane at JFK, when two baggage handlers came over to me to tell me that I don’t get it, that they’re going to vote for Donald Trump because they think they are being victimized the same way that he is.”
He said younger black men see Trump as fighting the same oppression and victimization by the system that they feel.
“In some of these votes that have left Joe Biden over the last four years, it’s because of Biden’s weakness. In this case, young black men see in Donald Trump, the same kind of oppression, the same kind of persecution, the idea that Trump is a victim and they feel victimized by the system,” Luntz added.
“And so they’re endorsing Trump because of the fight that he’s having, and I actually think it’s possible that among black voters, male black voters under age 40, that even a third of them could end up with Trump in the fall.”
The Biden campaign is aware of weakening black support for the president and has launched events portraying Trump and his supporters as racists standing in the way of equality, as part of its strategy to energize the black vote.
“My predecessor and his extreme MAGA friends are responsible for taking away other fundamental freedoms, from the freedom to vote to the freedom to choose. But I’ve always believed that the promise of America is big enough for everyone to succeed,” Biden said.
However, Biden’s margin leading Trump among black voters has significantly decreased in recent polls.
